CFP Playoff Simulator
A 12-team playoff model built from results, opponent strength, opponent-adjusted efficiency (EPA per play, success rate, explosiveness, havoc), and live market lines. Updated hourly after games complete.
Power ratings blend margin-of-victory results with market lines where available.
Conference champions are projected by best conference record or simulated championship games.
CFP selection uses simulated power ratings as a committee proxy; real committee politics are not modeled.
Team
Make field
Leverage
1Ohio State Buckeyes1-1AP #1
94%
Low
2Indiana Hoosiers1-0AP #6
95%
Medium
3Notre Dame Fighting Irish2-0AP #4
79%
Low
4Oregon Ducks1-1AP #2
83%
Low
5Georgia Bulldogs1-0AP #3
85%
Medium
6Texas Longhorns2-0AP #5
80%
Medium
7Miami Hurricanes1-0AP #7
94%
Medium
8USC Trojans2-0AP #14
49%
Medium
9Texas A&M Aggies2-0AP #8
47%
Low
10LSU Tigers1-0AP #11
45%
Medium
11Texas Tech Red Raiders1-0AP #12
79%
High
12Ole Miss Rebels2-0AP #9
30%
Low
13Alabama Crimson Tide2-0AP #13
29%
Medium
14Oklahoma Sooners1-1AP #10
29%
Low
15Michigan Wolverines2-0AP #16
22%
Medium
16Penn State Nittany Lions1-0AP #18
28%
Medium
17BYU Cougars1-0AP #14
29%
Low
18Tennessee Volunteers1-0AP #20
15%
Low
19Washington Huskies2-0AP #17
9%
Low
20Iowa Hawkeyes2-0AP #22
8%
Low
21SMU Mustangs1-0AP #19
17%
Medium
22Utah Utes1-0AP #21
18%
Medium
23Louisville Cardinals0-1AP #24
6%
Low
24Missouri Tigers1-0AP #25
3%
—
25Houston Cougars1-0AP #23
4%
—
26Clemson Tigers0-1
4%
—
27Tulsa Golden Hurricane2-0
69%
High
28UCLA Bruins2-0
1%
—
29Kansas State Wildcats1-0
3%
—
30Boise State Broncos1-1
61%
High
31Arizona Wildcats0-1
1%
—
32Iowa State Cyclones0-1
1%
—
33Florida Gators1-0
1%
—
34Virginia Cavaliers1-0
3%
—
35North Dakota State Bison2-0
75%
High
36Maryland Terrapins1-0
1%
—
37Virginia Tech Hokies0-0
1%
—
38Nebraska Cornhuskers2-0
0%
—
39Pittsburgh Panthers3-0
1%
—
40South Carolina Gamecocks1-0
0%
—
41South Florida Bulls2-0
23%
High
42Auburn Tigers1-0
0%
—
43Arizona State Sun Devils0-1
0%
—
44Duke Blue Devils2-0
0%
—
45Purdue Boilermakers0-1
0%
—
46Baylor Bears0-1
0%
—
47NC State Wolfpack0-1
0%
—
48Vanderbilt Commodores1-0
0%
—
49UCF Knights0-1
0%
—
50Mississippi State Bulldogs1-0
0%
—
51Oklahoma State Cowboys1-1
0%
—
52Illinois Fighting Illini1-1
0%
—
53Cincinnati Bearcats1-0
0%
—
54Northwestern Wildcats0-0
0%
—
55Minnesota Golden Gophers0-1
0%
—
56Wisconsin Badgers0-1
0%
—
57Colorado Buffaloes1-0
0%
—
58Toledo Rockets0-1
27%
High
59Western Michigan Broncos0-1
23%
High
60San Diego State Aztecs0-1
12%
Medium
61Michigan State Spartans2-0
0%
—
62Air Force Falcons0-1
9%
Medium
63Kansas Jayhawks0-1
0%
—
64Sam Houston Bearkats0-1
16%
High
65North Carolina Tar Heels1-0
0%
—
66Fresno State Bulldogs1-1
19%
High
67West Virginia Mountaineers0-0
0%
—
68Florida Atlantic Owls1-1
1%
—
69Temple Owls0-1
2%
—
70Florida State Seminoles1-1
0%
—
71TCU Horned Frogs0-1
0%
—
72Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets0-2
0%
—
73East Carolina Pirates0-1
3%
—
74Wake Forest Demon Deacons2-0
0%
—
75Boston College Eagles1-1
0%
—
76Delaware Blue Hens0-1
18%
High
77Massachusetts Minutemen1-0
32%
High
78Nevada Wolf Pack1-0
7%
Medium
79California Golden Bears1-1
0%
—
80Liberty Flames0-0
39%
High
81Oregon State Beavers0-2
4%
—
82Memphis Tigers1-1
2%
—
83Wyoming Cowboys0-1
3%
—
84UConn Huskies0-1
0%
—
85Syracuse Orange0-2
0%
—
86Washington State Cougars0-2
1%
—
87Florida International Panthers1-1
13%
High
88Rutgers Scarlet Knights0-2
0%
—
89Kentucky Wildcats0-1
0%
—
90Missouri State Bears0-1
5%
Medium
91New Mexico Lobos1-0
3%
—
92Stanford Cardinal1-1
0%
—
93UTSA Roadrunners1-0
0%
—
94North Texas Mean Green1-1
1%
—
95Navy Midshipmen0-1
0%
—
96UNLV Rebels1-2
1%
—
97Central Michigan Chippewas0-1
4%
—
98Tulane Green Wave0-1
0%
—
99Texas State Bobcats0-2
1%
—
100Army Black Knights0-1
0%
—
101San José State Spartans1-1
2%
—
102Ohio Bobcats1-1
10%
Medium
103Rice Owls0-1
0%
—
104Colorado State Rams1-0
2%
—
105Bowling Green Falcons0-1
1%
—
106Jacksonville State Gamecocks0-2
2%
—
107Western Kentucky Hilltoppers0-2
1%
—
108Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders0-0
4%
—
109Arkansas Razorbacks0-1
0%
—
110Miami (OH) RedHawks0-1
1%
—
111Kennesaw State Owls0-0
2%
—
112Utah State Aggies0-1
0%
—
113UAB Blazers0-1
0%
—
114Eastern Michigan Eagles1-2
0%
—
115Ball State Cardinals0-1
1%
—
116Charlotte 49ers0-1
0%
—
117Northern Illinois Huskies0-1
0%
—
118Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors1-2
0%
—
119Akron Zips0-1
0%
—
120UTEP Miners0-1
0%
—
121New Mexico State Aggies0-2
0%
—
122Sacramento State Hornets0-2
0%
—
123Buffalo Bulls0-1
0%
—
124Kent State Golden Flashes0-1
0%
—
Conference title odds
American ConferenceTulsa Golden Hurricane 69%
Mid-American ConferenceMassachusetts Minutemen 32%
Big 12 ConferenceTexas Tech Red Raiders 72%
Southeastern ConferenceGeorgia Bulldogs 48%
Atlantic Coast ConferenceMiami Hurricanes 85%
Big Ten ConferenceIndiana Hoosiers 61%
Mountain West ConferenceNorth Dakota State Bison 75%
Conference USALiberty Flames 39%
About the model
- 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations per run.
- Power ratings blend margin-of-victory, opponent strength, opponent-adjusted efficiency, and market lines. Beating a good team counts for more than the same margin against a bad one.
- Efficiency inputs (EPA per play, success rate, explosiveness, havoc, SP+) come from CollegeFootballData. They are efficiency metrics, not scouting grades.
- Selection follows the 12-team CFP rules: 5 highest-ranked conference champions + 7 at-large bids, top 4 champions earn byes.
- 186 games used, 112 with market lines.
- Last updated: 9/18/2026, 10:17:13 PM.