Accuracy & data audit
Everything behind our numbers, published: how graded leans finished at each confidence tier, how fresh each feed is right now, and how often the line we pointed you to was still live when the slip was built.
Confidence legend
Confidence is measured in football points of disagreement with the book — nothing else.
- No edgeunder 0.5 ptOur number and the book's number are basically the same. Nothing to bet here.
- Slight0.5–1.5 ptsA half point to a point and a half of disagreement. Real, but the kind of gap normal week-to-week noise can erase.
- Moderate1.5–3 ptsOne and a half to three points. Enough that the side we like is meaningfully different from what's posted.
- Strong3+ ptsThree points or more — a full field goal apart from the market. Rare, and usually means one factor (weather, a starter out) is doing heavy lifting.
How this number is calculated
Every factor is worth actual football points. We add them up, apply them to the book's posted line, and the difference is the edge. The result is a projection — an estimate of a fair price — not a line you can bet.
Read it as: we think the Chiefs should be laying about 8.8, the book only makes them lay 7, so laying 7 is 1.8 points better than our estimate of fair. Your dials multiply each line above — set a factor to 0x and it contributes nothing; set it to 2x and it counts double.
The same math runs on totals: plus points push the Over, minus points push the Under. Because a projection is an estimate, it lands on any number — ~-7.4, ~-8.8 — while books only post whole and half points. That mismatch is normal: the book isn't rounding our number, it's posting its own, and only the book's number is placeable.
Verification results
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A lean is graded against the number that was posted when we froze it, not the closing number. Tiers with fewer than 40 decided games are marked thin rather than shown as a percentage.
Data freshness
If a feed is stale, the factors that depend on it contribute less — that's why coverage is shown on every lean.
Did our suggested edges match placement-eligible lines?
Measured on teaser slips, where we name one book and confirm every leg's exact number at that book before you place.
No slips audited yet. Build a teaser and every book choice, ladder offered and rejection reason gets recorded here.
Do our “in your favor” labels match the math?
Every move label is recomputed from the side each member actually took. If a label ever said better when that side's own number got worse, it shows up here.
No closed picks to audit yet. Once games settle, every favor label gets re-derived from the side that was taken and scored here.
Cash-out estimates vs. real offers
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Crew-vs-solo results live on the results page. Nothing here is a guarantee — past results don't predict future ones.