CFP Playoff Simulator
A playoff model for this year's 12-team field and next year's projected 24-team field, built from results, opponent strength, opponent-adjusted efficiency (EPA per play, success rate, explosiveness, havoc), and live market lines. Updated hourly after games complete.
Power ratings blend margin-of-victory results with market lines where available.
Conference champions are projected by best conference record or simulated championship games.
Selection: the 5 highest-ranked conference champions get in, the rest are at-large, and the field is seeded straight by ranking (top seeds get byes, champion or not, independents included).
Polls: the Coaches Poll is primary; AP is the second human poll in the BCS formula.
BCS standings = 1/3 Coaches + 1/3 AP + 1/3 computers (six model rankings incl. a no-margin Colley matrix, best and worst dropped). They feed the power ranking, most deserving list and projected fields.
The committee proxy blends team strength (best) with résumé (most deserving); real committee politics are not modeled.
The 24-team bracket is a projection of next season's format (6 champion auto-bids, 18 at-large, 8 byes) and will change when the final rules are published.
Our projection of the committee's field: the 5 highest-ranked conference champions plus 7 at-large, seeded straight by ranking.
Bracket
4 byes · first round on campus · title odds shown · AQ = champion auto-bid
First round at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
First round at Indiana Hoosiers
First round at Georgia Bulldogs
First round at Texas Longhorns
QB watch
- #11 UCLA Bruins · Nico Iamaleava — Missed the last two games (backup won both)Next up: Ty Dieffenbach (70 att, 6.4 adj. yds/att) · -3.9 pts to their rating · read from box scores, not an official report
Last 4 in
- BYU Cougars65% in
Key game: Wk 10 @ Utah Utes (48% swing)
- LSU Tigers66% in
Key game: Wk 12 @ Tennessee Volunteers (50% swing)
- Texas Longhorns90% in
Key game: Wk 10 @ Missouri Tigers (32% swing)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish93% in
Key game: Wk 9 @ Navy Midshipmen (28% swing)
First 4 out
- Texas Tech Red Raiders47% in
Key game: Wk 11 @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (44% swing)
- Kentucky Wildcats38% in
Key game: Wk 12 @ Missouri Tigers (44% swing)
- Ole Miss Rebels37% in
Key game: Wk 11 @ Oklahoma Sooners (50% swing)
- New Mexico Lobos11% in
Key game: Wk 11 vs UNLV Rebels (14% swing)
Conference champions · 5 auto-bids
Favorite to win each title
- Atlantic Coast Miami Hurricanes 98%Auto-bid · #2 seed
- Southeastern Georgia Bulldogs 48%Auto-bid · #6 seed
- Big 12 Utah Utes 74%Auto-bid · #4 seed
- Big Ten UCLA Bruins 67%Auto-bid · #11 seed
- Pac-12 Boise State Broncos 99%Auto-bid · #12 seed
- Mountain West New Mexico Lobos 86%No bid
- American UTSA Roadrunners 57%No bid
- Conference USA Liberty Flames 99%No bid
- Mid-American Ohio Bobcats 49%No bid
Elimination games · Week 9
12-team odds to make the field
Win → 74% · Loss → 22%
Win → 67% · Loss → 31%
Win → 55% · Loss → 19%
Path to the title
Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times
- Alabama Crimson Tide99%60%59%20%
- Miami Hurricanes>99%82%62%20%
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish93%24%45%15%
- Ohio State Buckeyes>99%93%56%12%
- LSU Tigers66%10%26%7%
- Indiana Hoosiers97%21%34%7%
- Texas Longhorns90%31%34%7%
- Georgia Bulldogs88%27%25%4%
- Utah Utes90%40%27%4%
- BYU Cougars65%5%11%2%
Power rankings · Top 50
Résumé first, then proven strength, stars, health and coaching; close calls go head-to-head
- 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations per run.
- Power ratings blend margin-of-victory, opponent strength, opponent-adjusted efficiency, and market lines. Beating a good team counts for more than the same margin against a bad one.
- Stars & depth come from this season's national award watch lists, semifinalists and finalists. Health reads who missed the latest game from box scores, plus QB status confirmed by our analysts; a starting QB out costs what the drop-off to his backup is worth. Coaching uses the current head coach's own record vs AP Top 25 teams, applied only to games vs ranked opponents. The eye test grades per-game stats in 13 categories, adjusted for opponents.
- Selection follows the CFP rules: the 5 highest-ranked conference champions get in, the rest are at-large, and seeding is straight by ranking (top seeds earn byes). Next year's 24-team bracket is a projection.
- 575 games used, 35 with market lines.
- Last updated: 10/31/2026, 6:17:27 PM.
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